• Date: Monday, 25th November 2024
  • Time: 9.30am – 5pm
  • Location: Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford (UK)

The post-election workshop is an opportunity to critically assess the various data collection and modeling strategies employed for pre-election estimates of the vote share of the major U.S. presidential candidates over the course of the campaign. Leading pollsters from academia and industry will critically assess the state of pre-election polling in the aftermath of the 2024 Presidential Elections.

9:00am – 9:30amCoffee
9:30am – 10:00amWelcome and Introductions
10:00am – 11:00amNational Election Studies & Commercial Polling
– Shanto Iyengar, Professor (Stanford) and Principal Investigator of the American National Election Study (ANES)
– Jane Green, Professor (Nuffield College), President of the British Polling Council, and Principal Investigator British Election Study
– Clifford Young, President Public Affairs (IPSOS U.S.A.)
11:00am – 11:30amCoffee Break
11:30am – 12:30pmAdvances in Model-Based Election Election-Polling
– Lucas Leemann, Professor (University of Zurich)
– Kosuke Imai, Professor (Harvard University)
12:30pm – 1:30pmLunch
1:30pm – 2:30pmPolling Aggregation: Resilience to Systematic Bias
– Eli McKown-Dawson, LSE and Silver Bulletin
– Steve Fisher, Professor (University of Oxford)
– Martin Strabe and Oliver Hawkins (The Financial Times)
2:30pm – 2:45pmCoffee
2:45pm – 3:45pmElection Forecasting: Mapping the State of the Art
– Mary Steigmeier, Professor (University of Missouri)
– Philippe Mongrain, Post-doctoral Researcher (University of
Antwerp)
3:45pm – 4:00pmCoffee
4:00pm – 5:00pmSilicon Sampling for Public Opinion Polling
– Roberto Cerina, Assistant Professor (University of Amsterdam)
– Ray Duch, Professor (Nuffield College)
– Ben Warner, Founder (Electric Twin)