PoSSUM USA 2024 Presidential Campaign Vote Share Predictions (September, 7-12 2024)
Our topline National estimates saw Harris ahead by around 1 point, seemingly benefiting from an improvement in enthusiasm. Note: we re-estimates the 1st poll to account for changes in ballot access due to Kennedy withdrawing from some states.
Our state-level estimates favour Trump — but the race is close. If PoSSUM is biased by 2.5 points, which is within the historical polling error, NV, AZ, PA, GA flip and Harris wins. Estimates are based on an MrP which aggregates all PoSSUM polls up to 9/12.
Our topline estimates are broadly exchangeable with those of other polls, as are our cross tabs with respect to age, race/ethnicity, sex and education, etc.
For more details on the polling numbers…
