PoSSUM USA 2024 Presidential Campaign Vote Share Predictions (September, 22-29 2024)
The 3rd PoSSUM Poll is now live. This poll shows a Popular Vote tie, which implies a likely Trump win in the electoral college.

The State-level estimates suggest a map which favours Trump in the swing states by relatively narrow margins. How reliable are these estimates? We benchmark our state-level estimates, derived by aggregating our last 2 polls + MrP v. 538 & Uniform Swing models.

Our estimates track benchmarks closely – though they have a relative bias in favour of Trump by anywhere between 1.5 and 2 %. Interesting here is that the Uniform Swing model agrees on a Trump EC win, whilst 538 departs from this by throwing WI and PA to Harris.

For more details on the polling numbers…
