PoSSUM USA 2024 Presidential Campaign Vote Share Predictions (October, 05-15 2024)
The race appears stable at the national level, and remains in favour of Trump at the electoral-college (Estimated EC: Trump 297 – Harris 241, P(R win)=0.74).
Since our last measurement we see a change in Nevada, where Harris now has ~2 points advantage – though the election is terribly close, with 5 swing states within 1.5 points, and 7 states within 2 points.
Minnesota is a point of departure for PoSSUM relative to other polls due to strong performance of third party candidates. As mentioned in the previous forecast, it’s difficult to say whether this is true on the ground, the AI hallucinating, or selection effects into X. The AI’s read is consistent with the Trump-Kennedy strategy of selective withdrawal.
In terms of direct comparison with Uniform Swing and the 538 models, again PoSSUM traces both quite closely, departing in calls with Uniform Swing only in MI, and with 538 in MI and WI. Note the story in Wisconsin is again driven by third-party performance.
For more details on the polling numbers…
